Step 1

Step 1. What are the climate projections for the proposed revegetation site? Where to find and how to use climate projections at the regional level

A variety of on-line tools are available to assist natural resource managers to plan for plausible climate futures at a regional level, although the level of spatial resolution varies between tools developed in different States and regions. It is not possible, nor desirable, to use a single value for the change in temperature or rainfall at a particular site for a particular time period, because there will always be uncertainty associated with projections14. The values derived from the tools will depend on the emissions scenario (see Box 2) and climate model chosen, and the range of uncertainty will be greater for some variables. For example, projections of future rainfall are generally more uncertain than those for temperature. Indeed, in some instances, projections of rainfall at a site not only vary considerably in magnitude but also in direction.

One approach is to consider both a ‘worst case’ and ‘best case’ scenario, where ‘worst’ and ‘best’ are defined in relation to existing climate (e.g. a dry location projected to be drier). The Climate Projections for Australia website has a tool that demonstrates this approach (see Box 3) and Figure 2 illustrates the ranges provided on the NARCLiM website (Box 3).

1. Go to Box 3 and find the climate projection for the region of interest.

Box 3 provides a list of web-based tools, developed at both the national and State level that can be used to project environmental conditions at the regional level. If projections at the regional level are not available for the particular State, the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology website (Regional Climate Change Explorer) will be the most useful.

Figure 2. Range of rainfall projections, 2060–2079, compared to the baseline climate (1990–2009) for the Metropolitan Sydney region (taken from http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au). Note that the variation in projections for winter span both drying and wetting, ranging from a decrease of 37.8% to an increase of 38%, with a mean of -0.1%. In contrast, the majority of the models agree that rainfall in autumn will increase.

What will the site be like in the future? A toolbox of resources

Climate projections for Australia

(CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology)

Go to www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au. Support and guidance on how to use the website is available at http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/support-and-guidance/. This website provides access to a wide range of tools, datasets and guidance material. These tools include:

• Regional climate change explorer
  To obtain a regional climate change projection:
  1. Go to http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/about/modelling-choices-and-methodology/regionalisation-schemes/
  2. Click on the Cluster Search Tool link (an excel spreadsheet) to determine which cluster represents the region of interest:
  3. Click on the link ‘Cluster report’: http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/cluster-reports/
  4. Click on the link for the region of interest.
• Thresholds calculator
  Users can explore projected changes in the annual-average number of days above or below selected thresholds for maximum and minimum temperatures at over 100 sites. http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/explore-data/threshold-calculator/
• Australian Climate Futures
  A tool that tabulates projected changes in two climate variables, selected from a list of up to 16 variables. It shows the clustering and spread of projections produced by up to 40 climate models, for selected years and emission scenarios. This information can guide the selection of a small subset of climate models for use in impact assessment. Users can select a ‘worst case’ scenario, a ‘best case’, or a ‘maximum consensus’ case that is relevant to their context. https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/climate-futures-tool/introduction-climate-futures/
• Map explorer
  This tool allows users to produce a map of climate projections for individual climate models across a range of variables, time periods and emissions scenarios. Users can zoom into regions of interest and download data in different formats. Click on Explore data | Map explorer http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/explore-data/map-explorer/
• Other tools on the site include the Climate Extremesexplorer (to view projections for cold nights, hot days and extreme rainfall) http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/climate-extremes/ and the Marine Explorer (for sea level rise and other oceanic variables) http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/coastal-marine/marine-explorer/
• Further information about climate science, climate models, projections and data can be found in the Climate Campus http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/, designed to build knowledge in key climate science areas.

State-based climate change tools

NSW & ACT

NARCliM has produced an ensemble of regional climate projections for southeastern Australia that can be used to plan for the range of likely future changes in climate (2030 and 2070).

Go to: http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/climate-projections-for-NSW/About-NARCliM

To obtain projections for the region:

Either

1. Download a pdf:
   1. Go to: http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au
   2. Click on the ‘Climate projections for NSW’ tab | Climate projections for your region’

   Or

2. Access detailed projections (recommended action):
   1. Go to: http://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au
   2. Click on the ‘Climate projections for NSW’ tab | interactive map
   3. Click on the ‘Region view’ tab
   4. On the interactive map, click in the region of interest
   5. Select the appropriate climate variable and time range from the list on the right hand side of the map (e.g. temperature and click on the arrow)
   6. Click on ‘Read more’
   7. Click on the bars on the graph to see the range of projected highs and lows (see Figure 2 for an example)

Tasmania

Climate Futures for Tasmania: Dynamically downscaled climate projections for Tasmania are based on six global climate models under two emissions scenarios (high emissions scenario – A2; and lower emissions scenario – B1) Climate information is available for the period 1961 to 2100 at ~10 km resolution. The summary reports consider changes to mean and extreme climate conditions, runoff and hydrology, and fire danger. http://acecrc.org.au/climate-futures-for-tasmania/

Western Australia

The Western Australian Local Government Association has developed a toolkit to help local governments adapt to climate change. http://walga.asn.au/Policy-Advice-and-Advocacy/Environment/Climate-Change/Additional-Climate-Change-Resources.aspx

Victoria

Regional climate projections are available from https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au

Queensland

Climate projections are available at https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au . Users must register on-line to receive the data.

The ANPC is proud to be hosting ‘Climate-ready revegetation – a guide for natural resource managers’ on behalf of the authors. However its content has not yet been formally endorsed as ANPC policy. The ANPC suggests that any user of the guide should carefully consider its appropriateness to their particular circumstances. The field of climate-anticipatory revegetation is still developing, is locally contingent, and should be considered in conjunction with established best practice